UEFA Conference League · Thu, Nov 26, 12:45 PM · Johan Cruijff Arena
AJA
Ajax
Usually scores 1.8 and concedes 1.1 per match · recent form W W D W L
THUN
FC Thun
Usually scores 1.1 and concedes 0.7 per match · recent form W W L L L
- — Ajax 82 days’ rest · FC Thun n/a.
Injuries are pulled from ESPN when listed. Starting XI is still not in the feed.
Nova
Lean: Ajax DNB
Ajax vs FC Thun in the UEFA Conference League. Ajax DNB is the call. The most likely score is 1–0, and the call matches it. Ajax have the better recent form (WWDWL). The other side is WWLLL. Expected goals 1.7–0.8. Most likely score 1–0. Lean Ajax DNB at 1.74. This is the market to play on this match. It is not sized as a stake.
Lean Ajax DNB. The market to play. Not a full stake.
- — Ajax DNB is the call. The most likely score is 1–0, and the call matches it.
- — Ajax have the better recent form (WWDWL). The other side is WWLLL.
- — Expected goals 1.7–0.8. Most likely score 1–0.
- — One side controls the game and the other keeps it tight. The match is not a formality.
Why this view
Lean: Ajax DNB. The market to play. Not a full stake.
- — Ajax DNB is the call. The most likely score is 1–0, and the call matches it.
- — Ajax have the better recent form (WWDWL). The other side is WWLLL.
- — Expected goals 1.7–0.8. Most likely score 1–0.
- — One side controls the game and the other keeps it tight. The match is not a formality.
- — Every possible score was checked. Ajax DNB lands 79% of them. Most common score was 1–0.
Nova can write a short note from the same numbers — it only runs when you ask, and we save the answer.
Analysis
How this match looks
Corners, cards and the first 10 minutes are model reads. Every possible score is checked, not a long random loop. Live 1X2 is from bet365 and Betway.
Corners
9.4
Ajax 5.7 · FC Thun 3.7
Cards
4.0
Yellow + red · O3.5 —
Outcomes
79%
Ajax DNB landed 79% across 63. Scores 1–0, 1–1, 2–0
Win to nil
36%
Ajax win to nil
- — Expected goals 1.7–0.8. Most likely score 1–0.
- — Goals parlay line is Over 1.5 goals. The total clears it by 0.9.
- — Corners from the two attacks, not the league. Ajax 5.7 against FC Thun's defence, FC Thun 3.7 against Ajax's. Line: Over 7.5 corners.
- — Cards from each squad and the opponent's attack. Ajax 1.8, FC Thun 2.2.
- — First 10 minutes: a goal is 18%, a corner is 47%. Not a builder — a fast start takes the goal, the card and the corner together.
- — Dolberg anytime scorer 39% · shots on target 55%.
- — Dolberg to be fouled 2+ 65% · Taylor to commit 2+ fouls 45%.
First 10 minutes · 00:00–09:59
No first-10 call. Under a goal and under a card look short, and a fast start beats them together with the corner.
| Market | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Goals0.5 | 18%5.62 | 82%1.22 |
| Corners0.5 | 47%2.12 | 53%1.89 |
| Cards0.5 | 14%7.10 | 86%1.16 |
| Free kicks2.5 | 48%2.08 | 52%1.93 |
| Goal kicks1.5 | 39%2.55 | 61%1.65 |
| Throw-ins4.5 | 41%2.45 | 59%1.69 |
Trends
Where they are consistent
Hit rates from recent full-time results (minimum six matches to name a specialist). Units assume typical book odds (Over 2.5 @ 1.85, BTTS @ 1.90, DNB @ 1.72) — a historical profile, not a lock for tonight.
Ajax
1 recent matches · Saturday, September 5 – Saturday, September 5 · 1.0–3.0 goals for–against
1–3
Need a few more full-time results to score this side.
FC Thun
No recent results yet
Need a few more full-time results to score this side.
Player props
Who is likely to get involved
Anytime is a goal at any time. SOT is shots on target. Card is a booking. Ranked by anytime probability.
| Player | Team | Anytime | 2+ | SOT 1+ | SOT 2+ | SOT 3+ | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasper DolbergF | Ajax | 39% | 9% | 55% | 19% | 5% | 7% |
| Marcos LeonardoF | Ajax | 35% | 7% | 55% | 19% | 5% | 7% |
| Kenneth TaylorM | Ajax | 23% | 3% | 32% | 6% | 4% | 10% |
Fouls
Who gets fouled, who commits them
Fouled is fouls won. Commit is fouls made. 1+ is at least one, 2+ is two or more, 3+ is three or more.
| Player | Team | Fouled 1+ | Fouled 2+ | Fouled 3+ | Fouls 1+ | Fouls 2+ | Fouls 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasper DolbergF | Ajax | 89% | 65% | 39% | 63% | 27% | 8% |
| Marcos LeonardoF | Ajax | 88% | 63% | 36% | 62% | 25% | 8% |
| Kenneth TaylorM | Ajax | 73% | 38% | 15% | 78% | 45% | 20% |
Markets
No live book 1X2 yet — these are model odds. Hover a column title for the definition. Suggested means our own number is ahead of a bet365 or Betway price of at least 1.30, and the form supports it.
| Market | Selection | Prob | Odds | Edge | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax1X2 home — Ajax win in 90 minutes. | 57% | — | — | — |
| Draw1X2 draw — match finishes level after 90 minutes. | 27% | — | — | — | |
| FC Thun1X2 away — FC Thun win in 90 minutes. | 16% | — | — | — | |
| Double Chance | 1X (Ajax or draw)Double Chance 1X — Ajax win or draw. Loses only if FC Thun win. | 84% | — | — | — |
| X2 (FC Thun or draw)Double Chance X2 — FC Thun win or draw. Loses only if Ajax win. | 43% | — | — | — | |
| Draw No Bet | Ajax DNBDraw No Bet on Ajax — wins if they win, stake returned if it draws, loses if FC Thun win. | 78% | — | — | — |
| FC Thun DNBDraw No Bet on FC Thun — wins if they win, stake returned if it draws, loses if Ajax win. | 22% | — | — | — | |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5Over 1.5 goals — two or more goals in the match. | 72% | — | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 27% | — | — | — | |
| Over 2.5Over 2.5 goals — three or more goals in the match. | 44% | — | — | — | |
| Under 2.5Under 2.5 goals — two or fewer goals in the match. | 56% | — | — | — | |
| Over 3.5Over 3.5 goals — four or more goals in the match. | 23% | — | — | — | |
| Under 3.5 | 76% | — | — | — | |
| BTTS | BTTS YesBTTS Yes — both teams score at least once. | 45% | — | — | — |
| BTTS NoBTTS No — at least one team fails to score. | 55% | — | — | — | |
| Asian Handicap | FC Thun +1.5 | 68% | — | — | — |
| Corners | Over 7.5 cornersOver 7.5 corners | 72% | — | — | — |
| Cards | Under 4.5 cards | 63% | — | — | — |
| Win to nil | Ajax win to nilAjax win to nil — they win and the other side does not score. | 36% | — | — | — |
| FC Thun win to nilFC Thun win to nil — they win and the other side does not score. | 8% | — | — | — | |
| Ajax win to nilAjax win to nil — they win and the other side does not score. | 36% | — | — | — | |
| FC Thun win to nilFC Thun win to nil — they win and the other side does not score. | 9% | — | — | — | |
| Clean sheet | Ajax clean sheet | 46% | — | — | — |
| FC Thun clean sheet | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Result and BTTS | Ajax win and both score | 21% | — | — | — |
| FC Thun win and both score | 7% | — | — | — | |
| Win and over 2.5 | Ajax win and over 2.5 | 32% | — | — | — |
| FC Thun win and over 2.5 | 8% | — | — | — | |
| Draw and under 2.5 | Draw and under 2.5 | 23% | — | — | — |
What could go wrong
- — No live 1X2 yet — the price on the card is the model’s estimate.
Bet terms
Hover a dotted word on the desk. Same definitions, collected here.
- 1X2
- Match result: 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win.
- Double Chance
- Two outcomes in one bet. 1X is home or draw; X2 is away or draw. Shorter odds, higher hit rate.
- Draw No Bet (DNB)
- Your side to win. If it draws, the stake is returned. You only lose if the other side wins.
- BTTS
- Both Teams To Score. Yes = each side scores; No = at least one team blanks.
- Over / Under
- Total goals. Over 2.5 needs three or more; Under 2.5 needs two or fewer.
- Asian Handicap
- A spread on the result. Home -1 means they must win by two; a one-goal win is typically half-win / half-void.
- SGP
- Same Game Parlay — two or more legs from the same match. All must land.
- Accumulator
- Multiple selections on one ticket. Every leg must win. Also called a parlay or acca.
- Banker
- A high-probability selection used as the cornerstone of an accumulator.
- Value
- When our probability is higher than the implied probability from the bookmaker’s odds. Positive EV.
- Odds
- Decimal odds — what 1 unit returns if the selection wins. 2.00 is even money; 1.50 is 1/2.
- Implied
- The probability baked into the odds (1 ÷ decimal odds, before de-vig).
- Edge
- Edge — model probability minus the implied probability from the odds. Positive means value.
- EV
- Expected value (EV). Model probability × odds − 1. Positive EV is value in the long run, not a lock tonight.
- Trend
- Hit rate of a betting market over a team’s recent full-time results, including the current streak.
- Specialist
- A team whose recent results would have shown a profit in one market at typical odds (for example Over 2.5 @ 1.85). Not a guarantee they land the next one.
- Units
- Paper profit or loss if you staked 1 unit on that market every match at typical odds. +2.4u means 2.4 units up on that sample.
- Corners
- Total corners won in 90 minutes. Over 9.5 needs ten or more. Team Over 4.5 is that side winning five or more.
- Cards
- Yellow and red cards added together. Over 3.5 needs four or more bookings.
- Anytime scorer
- Player to score at any time in 90 minutes. Own goals usually do not count.
- SOT
- Shots on target. 1+ is at least one, 2+ is two or more, 3+ is three or more.
- Team totals
- One side’s goals. To score = at least one; Over 1.5 = two or more from that team.
- Fouls
- Total fouls committed in 90 minutes. Over 22.5 needs 23 or more. Team Over 10.5 is that side committing 11 or more.
- Fouled 2+
- Player to be fouled twice or more. Also called fouls won. Lines start at 1+, not 0.5.
- 2+ fouls
- Player to commit two or more fouls. Lines start at 1+, not 0.5.
- Pass
- We have a view, but the odds are not value — no bet.
- Clerk
- The second reader. Clerk states the 1X2 from the price, then may call any market — 1X2, DNB, double chance, goals, BTTS, corners, cards, Asian handicap, or a bet builder. Nova still makes the final call.
- Xoduss
- The third reader. Xoduss states the 1X2 from team strength, then may call any market on the card. It does not overrule Nova. Nova’s call is the one on the ticket.
- bet365
- The only price on a card. Shown when bet365 lists that market. Betway is used only if bet365 has no price. A model number is never shown as odds.
- Betway
- Used only when bet365 has not listed that market. The card shows one price, not both.
- Slip book
- Your personal tickets — saved, taken, and settled. Separate from Nova’s Called it / Missed model record.
- Take
- Record this ticket as placed, with a unit stake. It sits in the slip book as open until the matches finish.
- Save
- Keep the ticket in the slip book without staking it yet. You can Take it later.
- Today’s 3
- Nova’s three tickets for the day: a banker, a value single, and a same-game parlay. Ranked from form, rest, trends, the live books, and the price. Take, Pass, or Save each.
- Dropping odds
- The 1X2 price shortened versus our opening snapshot. Sharp money or late news often shows up as a cut on bet365 and Betway together.
- Drifted
- The price got longer. Either the other side is steaming, or the market is offering more than it did at the open.
- Value found
- Live book odds are longer than our probability. A price a winning desk would actually take — not a 1.10 steamroller.
- Set alert
- The favourite is too short to back now. Wait for the 1X2 to drift, or play the handicap / total instead.
- No odds yet
- The match is on the slate but bet365 and Betway have not listed a live 1X2. Catch the opening price when it lands.