Trends

Teams and markets, from the results.

Every finished match on the desk is scored as a bet: Win, Double Chance, Draw No Bet, the totals, and BTTS. The cards are the market. The list is the team. 180 matches, 292 sides. Typical prices — not tonight’s bet365 line, and not a ticket.

Bet markets

How often each market has landed

Tap a market to rank sides in it. Tap it again for every team’s strongest lean. The small figure is the average return of a 1u stake at the typical price.

Charts

The same results, as bars

Lime clears the hit rate a typical price needs. The thin mark on a market bar is that break-even. This cut follows the league chip above.

Teams

Strongest lean

Each side’s best market at a typical price, once they have two finished matches. Bigger samples sit higher.

Southampton

CHA · 4 matches · 2.5–1.0 for–against

BTTS Yes

4/4 · 100%

+3.6u · 4 in a row

Besiktas

UEL · 4 matches · 2.3–1.0 for–against

Win

3/4 · 75%

+2.4u

Marseille

LI1 · 4 matches · 1.5–1.5 for–against

Over 3.5

2/4 · 50%

+2.4u

Preston North End

CHA · 3 matches · 1.3–2.0 for–against

BTTS Yes

3/3 · 100%

+2.7u · 3 in a row

Aston Villa

EPL · 3 matches · 1.0–1.0 for–against

Under 2.5

2/3 · 67%

+0.9u

Blackburn Rovers

CHA · 3 matches · 0.7–1.3 for–against

BTTS Yes

2/3 · 67%

+0.8u

Manchester City

EPL · 3 matches · 2.3–0.3 for–against

AH -1

2/3 · 67%

+3.8u

Millwall

CHA · 3 matches · 1.7–2.7 for–against

Over 3.5

2/3 · 67%

+3.4u

Swansea City

CHA · 3 matches · 1.3–1.0 for–against

Clean sheet

2/3 · 67%

+3.2u

Villarreal

LAL · 3 matches · 1.3–2.3 for–against

Over 3.5

2/3 · 67%

+3.4u

West Ham United

CHA · 3 matches · 3.3–1.3 for–against

AH -1

2/3 · 67%

+3.8u

Wrexham

CHA · 3 matches · 1.3–0.3 for–against

Clean sheet

2/3 · 67%

+3.2u

AFC Bournemouth

EPL · 2 matches · 1.5–1.5 for–against

BTTS Yes

2/2 · 100%

+1.8u

Arsenal

EPL · 2 matches · 1.5–0.5 for–against

Win

2/2 · 100%

+2.3u

Barcelona

LAL · 2 matches · 5.0–1.0 for–against

AH -1

2/2 · 100%

+4.8u

Birmingham City

CHA · 2 matches · 1.5–1.5 for–against

BTTS Yes

2/2 · 100%

+1.8u

Bolton Wanderers

CHA · 2 matches · 1.0–3.5 for–against

Over 3.5

2/2 · 100%

+4.4u

Borussia Dortmund

BUN · 2 matches · 3.0–2.0 for–against

Over 3.5

2/2 · 100%

+4.4u

Bet terms

Hover a dotted word on the desk. Same definitions, collected here.

1X2: Match result: 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win.
Double Chance: Two outcomes in one bet. 1X is home or draw; X2 is away or draw. Shorter odds, higher hit rate.
Draw No Bet (DNB): Your side to win. If it draws, the stake is returned. You only lose if the other side wins.
BTTS: Both Teams To Score. Yes = each side scores; No = at least one team blanks.
Over / Under: Total goals. Over 2.5 needs three or more; Under 2.5 needs two or fewer.
Asian Handicap: A spread on the result. Home -1 means they must win by two; a one-goal win is typically half-win / half-void.
SGP: Same Game Parlay — two or more legs from the same match. All must land.
Accumulator: Multiple selections on one ticket. Every leg must win. Also called a parlay or acca.
Banker: A high-probability selection used as the cornerstone of an accumulator.
Value: When our probability is higher than the implied probability from the bookmaker’s odds. Positive EV.
Odds: Decimal odds — what 1 unit returns if the selection wins. 2.00 is even money; 1.50 is 1/2.
Implied: The probability baked into the odds (1 ÷ decimal odds, before de-vig).
Edge: Edge — model probability minus the implied probability from the odds. Positive means value.
EV: Expected value (EV). Model probability × odds − 1. Positive EV is value in the long run, not a lock tonight.
Trend: Hit rate of a betting market over a team’s recent full-time results, including the current streak.
Specialist: A team whose recent results would have shown a profit in one market at typical odds (for example Over 2.5 @ 1.85). Not a guarantee they land the next one.
Units: Paper profit or loss if you staked 1 unit on that market every match at typical odds. +2.4u means 2.4 units up on that sample.
Corners: Total corners won in 90 minutes. Over 9.5 needs ten or more. Team Over 4.5 is that side winning five or more.
Cards: Yellow and red cards added together. Over 3.5 needs four or more bookings.
Anytime scorer: Player to score at any time in 90 minutes. Own goals usually do not count.
SOT: Shots on target. 1+ is at least one, 2+ is two or more, 3+ is three or more.
Team totals: One side’s goals. To score = at least one; Over 1.5 = two or more from that team.
Fouls: Total fouls committed in 90 minutes. Over 22.5 needs 23 or more. Team Over 10.5 is that side committing 11 or more.
Fouled 2+: Player to be fouled twice or more. Also called fouls won. Lines start at 1+, not 0.5.
2+ fouls: Player to commit two or more fouls. Lines start at 1+, not 0.5.
Pass: We have a view, but the odds are not value — no bet.
Clerk: The second reader. Clerk states the 1X2 from the price, then may call any market — 1X2, DNB, double chance, goals, BTTS, corners, cards, Asian handicap, or a bet builder. Nova still makes the final call.
Xoduss: The third reader. Xoduss states the 1X2 from team strength, then may call any market on the card. It does not overrule Nova. Nova’s call is the one on the ticket.
bet365: The only price on a card. Shown when bet365 lists that market. Betway is used only if bet365 has no price. A model number is never shown as odds.
Betway: Used only when bet365 has not listed that market. The card shows one price, not both.
Slip book: Your personal tickets — saved, taken, and settled. Separate from Nova’s Called it / Missed model record.
Take: Record this ticket as placed, with a unit stake. It sits in the slip book as open until the matches finish.
Save: Keep the ticket in the slip book without staking it yet. You can Take it later.
Today’s 3: Nova’s three tickets for the day: a banker, a value single, and a same-game parlay. Ranked from form, rest, trends, the live books, and the price. Take, Pass, or Save each.
Dropping odds: The 1X2 price shortened versus our opening snapshot. Sharp money or late news often shows up as a cut on bet365 and Betway together.
Drifted: The price got longer. Either the other side is steaming, or the market is offering more than it did at the open.
Value found: Live book odds are longer than our probability. A price a winning desk would actually take — not a 1.10 steamroller.
Set alert: The favourite is too short to back now. Wait for the 1X2 to drift, or play the handicap / total instead.
No odds yet: The match is on the slate but bet365 and Betway have not listed a live 1X2. Catch the opening price when it lands.